Commentary:
- re 1,2,3,6: For the time being, congress has settled into a stable Faustian pact with Trump.
- re 4: The Mueller inquiry is well resourced and headed by someone with every reason to see Trump fall
- re 9: Assassination by a violent extremist of the left must now be counted as a very real possibility. It's a bell curve, and Trump's actions are pumping up the size of the extreme ends, which my guess would now number in the hundreds (i.e. of a mind to, armed, and capable of carrying out). I'm somewhat surprised there hasn't been an assassination attempt to date.
Resulting in the following probabilities revisions for October (yellow column).
Notes:
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1 The totals are calculated using Bayes' rule. A way to think of it is: for Trump to make it through four years unscathed, he has to avoid ALL of the bad things (the scenarios described in 1 thru 13) happening to him. So the probability of his surviving is (100% - probability of 1st scenario happening) * (100% - probability of 2nd scenario happening) * (100% - probability of 3rd scenario happening) etc etc; and the The probability of his NOT surviving is (100% - The probability of his surviving).
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