(Spoiler: Trumpexit probability up from 42% on Jan 20 to 60% on Feb 20)
As a result of new information (new to me), there are now 13 scenarios, as per the table following:
- The impeachment scenario has been extended and split the into three distinct categories (1,2,3). This is because I'd not known that Congress is the sole arbitor of what constitutes an impeachable offense - and it doesn't have to be a criminal offense. 'New 1'. covers impeachment for genuine (external) criminal or quasi-criminal behavior; 'New 2'. covers impeachment driven by Congress in a political crisis situation; 'New 3'. covers impeachment driven by Congress for base political reasons. Obviously there is overlap between 2 and 3. To distinguish them, we require that 3 has to be associated with major external events such as prolonged government shut-down or large scale civil disorder.
- 25th Amendment removal due to incapacity resulting from mental disorder has been added as scenario 7. The VP and Cabinet has the power to do this. Again, I didn't know about this possibility until recently.
So what's changed in each scenario since Jan 20?
Resulting in the following probabilities revisions for February (yellow column).
Notes:
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1 The totals are calculated using Bayes' rule. A way to think of it is: for Trump to make it through four years unscathed, he has to avoid ALL of the bad things (the scenarios described in 1 thru 13) happening to him. So the probability of his surviving is (100% - probability of 1st scenario happening) * (100% - probability of 2nd scenario happening) * (100% - probability of 3rd scenario happening) etc etc; and the The probability of his NOT surviving is (100% - The probability of his surviving).
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